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U.S. Regional Drought Watch

National Climatic Data Center, 11 October 2002

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Global Analysis / Global Hazards / United States / U.S. Drought / Extreme Events
Use these links to access detailed analyses of Global and U.S. data.

Regional Drought Overview / Western U.S. / Central U.S. / Eastern U.S. / Additional Contacts / Questions

Click here to go to Top of Page Regional Overview

The remnants of Hurricane Isidore dumped heavy rains across much of the Gulf Coast to Ohio Valley during September, bringing short-term relief to many of the drought areas from the southern Appalachians to Ohio Valley. An upper-level weather system brought above-normal precipitation to the Southwest and frontal rains kept much of the Northeast moist this month. However, long-term conditions continued dry across much of the West and along the eastern seaboard from northern Florida to parts of Maine. Heavy rains from Tropical Storm Fay brought short-term relief to southern Texas, but long-term moisture deficits in deep south Texas continued in the severe drought category. September was dry from the central Plains to the southern Great Lakes. The primary stations in Hawaii were drier than normal during September, while the departures were mixed in Puerto Rico. The southern stations in Alaska were drier than normal, while the rest of the Alaskan stations were wetter than normal.

These overall conditions are evident in the following indicators:

Two other drought-related monitoring tools are the Vegetation Health Index and the Keetch-Byram Drought Index:

  • NOAA satellite observations of vegetation health from late September revealed stress on vegetation across the southwestern quarter of the U.S., and from the southern Appalachians to mid-Atlantic region.
  • The USDA Forest Service uses a satellite-based vegetation health index tool to monitor the risk of wildfires. This Greenness Index for late September revealed above-average stress on vegetation across parts of the West and adjoining Great Plains, as well as parts of the southeastern U.S.
  • The Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI) is used by the Wildland Fire Assessment System to monitor the risk of wildfires. The end-of-September KBDI showed dry conditions across much of the Far West and parts of the southern Plains and Southeast. The Forest Service fire danger analysis indicated a high risk of wildfires across parts of the Southwest and High Plains. The fire threat conditions can change rapidly from week to week.

Fire activity was much reduced in September compared to the earlier months of the fire season. During the first ten days of the month, wildfires were scattered throughout much of the western United States. The eastern wildfire season generally begins to get underway at this time. However, rainfall associated with tropical systems has helped to alleviate some drought in the Southeast, with fire risk lessened in these areas.

On September 10, the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) authorized emergency haying and grazing on Conservation Reserve Program (CRP) acres across the nation to provide relief for farmers and ranchers in areas hardest hit by drought and other natural disasters. Previously, emergency haying and grazing on CRP lands had been limited to 18 states (Environment News Service, 9/10).

According to September 22 USDA reports, with 52% of national pastureland in very poor to poor condition, there were:

  • 13 states with more than 66% of pastures very poor to poor
  • 26 states with at least 50% very poor to poor


Click here to go to Top of Page Western U.S. Drought

September is near the end of the dry season for the West and Northwest regions, so below normal summer precipitation has less of an impact here than in the winter. However, this month is near the end of the wet season for the Southwest region and the northern Rockies. On a regional basis, September 2002 continued a drier than normal run of months in the West and Northwest regions. But a wetter than normal September in the Southwest interrupted that region's dry run.
Click here for graph showing Northwest Region precipitation departures, January 1998-present
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Click here for graph showing West Region precipitation departures, January 1998-present
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Click here for graph showing Southwest Region precipitation departures, January 1998-present
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Click here for map showing 9-month Standardized Precipitation Index, Jan-Sep 2002
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By the end of September, topsoil moisture conditions were very dry across much of the western, north central, and northeast U.S. According to September 29 USDA reports, 50% or more of the topsoil was short to very short in Oregon (88%), Wyoming (85%), New Mexico (74%), Washington (69%), Idaho (69%), Utah (57%), and Colorado (56%).

A detailed discussion of drought conditions is available for the following regions and states:

Click here for map showing current Palmer Drought Index
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Click here to go to Top of Page Central U.S. Drought

The September rainfall pattern between the Rocky and Appalachian mountain ranges was mixed along the front range of the Rockies, dry from the Texas panhandle to the southern Great Lakes, and wet along and east of the Lower Mississippi and Ohio Valleys. Severe long-term drought continued across parts of the central and northern Plains and the Trans-Pecos and deep south Texas, with moderate long-term drought developing in parts of the southern Great Lakes. On a regional basis, September brought a return to dry conditions for the West North Central and East North Central regions, while the month averaged near normal for the South and Central regions.

Click here for graph showing West North Central Region precipitation departures, January 1998-present
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Click here for graph showing East North Central Region precipitation departures, January 1998-present
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By the end of September, topsoil moisture conditions were very dry across much of the northern and central portions of the U.S. According to September 29 USDA reports, 50% or more of the topsoil was short to very short in Missouri (76%), Kansas (75%), Nebraska (71%), Michigan (71%), West Virginia (64%), South Dakota (60%), Ohio (59%), Montana (54%), Illinois (51%), and North Dakota (50%).

A detailed discussion of drought conditions is available for the following regions and states: Click here for map showing Statewide Precipitation Ranks for September 2002
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Click here to go to Top of Page Eastern U.S. Drought

September rains brought short-term drought relief to much of the eastern U.S. On a regional basis, both the Northeast and Southeast regions averaged above normal for the month. However, short-term drought persisted along parts of the coastal mid-Atlantic, and long-term deficits remained severe.

Click here for map showing the Palmer Z Index
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Click here for map showing the Palmer Hydrological Drought Index
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By the end of September, topsoil moisture conditions were very dry in areas from the mid-Atlantic to Maine. According to September 29 USDA reports, 50% or more of the topsoil was short to very short in Pennsylvania (65%), Maine (65%), Maryland (59%), and Connecticut (50%).

A detailed discussion of drought conditions is available for the following regions and states:

Click here for map showing 24-month Standardized Precipitation Index, Oct 2000-Sep 2002
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Click here to go to Top of Page Additional Contacts:

Damage due to the drought has been summarized by NOAA and the Office of Global Programs in the Climatological Impacts section of the Climate Information Project. Crop impact information can be found at the USDA NASS (National Agricultural Statistics Service) and Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin pages. Drought statements by local National Weather Service Offices can be found at the NWS Hydrologic Information Center. Drought threat assessments and other information can be found at NOAA's Drought Information Center. Additional drought information can be found at the National Drought Mitigation Center, the USDA's National Agricultural Library, the interim National Drought Council, and the NOAA Paleoclimatology Program. The following states have set up web pages detailing current drought conditions and/or their plans to handle drought emergencies:
Colorado - Delaware - Delaware River Basin (DE-NJ-NY-PA) - Florida Panhandle - Georgia - Hawaii - Idaho - Kentucky - Maine - Maryland - Missouri - Montana-1 - Montana-2 - Nebraska - New Jersey-1 - New Jersey-2 - New Jersey-3 - New Mexico - North Carolina - Oklahoma-1 - Oklahoma-2 - Oklahoma-3 - Oregon-1 - Oregon-2 - Pennsylvania-1 - Pennsylvania-2 - Pennsylvania-3 - South Carolina - Texas - Vermont - Virginia - Washington - Wyoming

For additional information on current and past wildfire seasons please see the National Interagency Fire Center web site or the U.S. Forest Service Fire and Aviation web site.

NCDC's Drought Recovery Page shows the precipitation required to end or ameliorate droughts and the probability of receiving the required precipitation.

Additional climate monitoring graphics can be found at the Climate Prediction Center's monitoring pages:

Drought conditions on the Canadian prairies can be found at the Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada Drought Watch page.

Click here to go to Top of Page For all climate questions other than questions concerning this report, please contact the National Climatic Data Center's Climate Services Division:

Climate Services Division
NOAA/National Climatic Data Center
151 Patton Avenue
Asheville, NC 28801-5001
fax: 828-271-4876
phone: 828-271-4800
email: ncdc.info@noaa.gov
For further information on the historical climate perspective presented in this report, contact:

Richard Heim
NOAA/National Climatic Data Center
151 Patton Avenue
Asheville, NC 28801-5001
fax: 828-271-4328
email: Richard.Heim@noaa.gov
-or-
Jay Lawrimore
NOAA/National Climatic Data Center
151 Patton Avenue
Asheville, NC 28801-5001
fax: 828-271-4328
email: Jay.Lawrimore@noaa.gov
Click here to go to Top of Page
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