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U.S. Regional Drought Watch

National Climatic Data Center, 15 April 2003

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Global Analysis / Global Hazards / United States / U.S. Drought / Extremes
Use these links to access detailed analyses of Global and U.S. data.

Regional Drought Overview / Western U.S. / Central U.S. / Eastern U.S. / Additional Contacts / Questions

Click here to go to Top of Page Regional Overview

  • Above-normal precipitation fell across many western U.S. drought areas during March 2003, while others in the Great Plains and Midwest received below-normal precipitation.
  • March was dry from the central Appalachians to the southern Plains and over parts of California and Nevada
  • Much of the Great Lakes to northern Plains region had a fifth consecutive dry month.
  • Most of the primary stations in Alaska, Hawaii, and Puerto Rico had drier than normal conditions during March

Click here for map showing the Current Month 1-month Standardized Precipitation Index
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  • Long-term drought continued in a band from the southern Great Lakes to the central Plains and across much of the West

Click here for map showing Current Month Palmer Hydrological Drought Index
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A percent of normal precipitation map for March, created by the NOAA Regional Climate Centers (HPRCC) from Cooperative Network station data, shows greater detail of the spatial variability of the moisture anomalies.

The long-term dryness is also evident in the pattern of snowfall anomalies. Season-to-date (July 1, 2002 - April 9, 2003) snowfall has totaled below the long-term average across much of the Far West, central and northern Great Plains, and Great Lakes regions.

These overall conditions are evident in the following indicators: A detailed review of drought conditions is available for the following regions and states:

Click here for map showing the nine U.S. standard regions
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Click here to go to Top of Page Western U.S. Drought

March 2003 marked the third consecutive month with below-normal precipitation, regionwide, for the West region, resulting in the 20th driest January-March on record. In fact, of the last 12 months, only December averaged wetter than normal, giving the region the 29th driest April-March.
Click here for graph showing West Region precipitation departures, January 1998-present
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Click here for graph showing West Region precipitation, January-March, 1895-2003
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Across much of the rest of the western U.S. drought areas, however, above-normal rain and snow fell. March was the second consecutive month with above-normal precipitation averaged across the Southwest region, and 3 of the last 4 months were wetter than normal for the Pacific Northwest. But long-term moisture deficits remained. The 12-month period, April 2002-March 2003, ranked as the 27th driest for the Southwest, 25th driest for the Northwest, and tenth driest for the West North Central region.

A major winter storm brought near-record rain and snow to a large part of Colorado during the month, resulting in the ninth wettest March, statewide, in the 109-year record. However, long-term moisture deficits were so great that the state still ranked as 11th driest for April 2002-March 2003.

Click here for map showing statewide precipitation ranks, March 2003
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Click here for map showing statewide precipitation ranks, April 2002-March 2003
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Moderate to extreme drought still covered about 59% of the western U.S. (Rocky Mountains to west coast) at the end of March. These long-term drought conditions were reflected in below-average snow cover as monitored by snow course measurements, mountain SNOTEL station reports, and satellite observations, as well as by low reservoirs. The winter mountain snowpack is the source of spring meltwater which fills western reservoirs and is used for irrigation during the spring and summer growing seasons.

A detailed review of drought conditions is available for several western states and regions.


Click here to go to Top of Page Central U.S. Drought

Although above-normal precipitation fell across parts of the upper Great Lakes, the East North Central region still averaged drier than normal, giving March 2003 a rank of 41st driest. This month marked the fifth consecutive below-normal month for the region, with November 2002-March 2003 ranking as the driest November-March, regionwide, on record. According to an analysis by NOAA's Midwest Regional Climate Center, a large part of the region had less than half the normal precipitation for November-March.

The dry conditions raised concerns about possible low levels for the Great Lakes later this summer. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers predicted that, by July, all of the lakes are expected to be at or below their levels of 2001, which were the lowest since the record lows in 1964 (U.S. Water News Online).

Click here for graph showing East North Central Region precipitation, November-March, 1895-2003
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Click here for map showing 6-Month SPI, October 2002-March 2003
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Dry conditions from the central Appalachians to the southern Plains gave several states a March precipitation rank in the top ten driest category, along with a rank of twelfth driest for the Central region and 24th driest for the South region. Several wildfires had broken out in Arkansas, Oklahoma, and adjoining parts of Texas, scorching about 30,000 acres of vegetation by April 2.

Click here for map showing March 2003 Palmer Z Index
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Click here for graph showing Central Region precipitation, March, 1895-2003
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The March dryness continued to significantly deplete soil moisture from the central Plains to the Great Lakes. This is evident in modeled soil moisture departures as computed by the NOAA Climate Prediction Center and the Midwest Regional Climate Center at both the top soil layers and deeper layers. Early April precipitation significantly improved moisture conditions in the top soil layers and helped improve conditions to some extent in the deeper layers.

A detailed review of drought conditions is available for several central U.S. states and regions.


Click here to go to Top of Page Eastern U.S. Drought

March precipitation was near to above normal averaged across the Northeast and Southeast regions, although some stations in the interior Northeast were drier than normal. March averaged near normal across Maine, but dryness in both the short- and long-term gave the state the 14th driest January-March, eighth driest August-March, and 23rd driest April-March in the 109-year record. Long-term moisture deficits remained over the Carolinas and Georgia at the 24-month to 60-month timescales.

A detailed review of drought conditions is available for several eastern states and regions.

Click here for map showing 24-month Standardized Precipitation Index
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Click here for map showing 60-month Percent of Average Precipitation
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Click here to go to Top of Page Additional Contacts:

Damage due to the drought has been summarized by NOAA and the Office of Global Programs in the Climatological Impacts section of the Climate Information Project. Crop impact information can be found at the USDA NASS (National Agricultural Statistics Service) and Weekly Weather and Crop Bulletin pages. Drought statements by local National Weather Service Offices can be found at the NWS Hydrologic Information Center. Drought threat assessments and other information can be found at NOAA's Drought Information Center. Additional drought information can be found at the National Drought Mitigation Center, the USDA's National Agricultural Library, the interim National Drought Council, and the NOAA Paleoclimatology Program. The following states have set up web pages detailing current drought conditions and/or their plans to handle drought emergencies:
Colorado - Delaware - Delaware River Basin (DE-NJ-NY-PA) - Florida Panhandle - Georgia - Hawaii - Idaho - Kentucky - Maine - Maryland - Missouri-1 - Missouri-2 - Montana-1 - Montana-2 - Nebraska - New Jersey-1 - New Jersey-2 - New Jersey-3 - New Mexico - North Carolina - Oklahoma-1 - Oklahoma-2 - Oklahoma-3 - Oregon - Pennsylvania-1 - Pennsylvania-2 - Pennsylvania-3 - South Carolina - Texas - Vermont - Virginia - Washington - Wyoming

For additional information on current and past wildfire seasons please see the National Interagency Fire Center web site or the U.S. Forest Service Fire and Aviation web site.

NCDC's Drought Recovery Page shows the precipitation required to end or ameliorate droughts and the probability of receiving the required precipitation.

Additional climate monitoring graphics can be found at the Climate Prediction Center's monitoring pages:

Precipitation and modeled soil moisture anomaly maps for the Midwest U.S. can be found at the Midwest Regional Climate Center's monitoring page.

Drought conditions on the Canadian prairies can be found at the Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada Drought Watch page.

Click here to go to Top of Page For all climate questions other than questions concerning this report, please contact the National Climatic Data Center's Climate Services Division:

Climate Services Division
NOAA/National Climatic Data Center
151 Patton Avenue
Asheville, NC 28801-5001
fax: 828-271-4876
phone: 828-271-4800
email: ncdc.info@noaa.gov

For further information on the historical climate perspective presented in this report, contact:

Richard Heim
NOAA/National Climatic Data Center
151 Patton Avenue
Asheville, NC 28801-5001
fax: 828-271-4328
email: Richard.Heim@noaa.gov

-or-

Jay Lawrimore
NOAA/National Climatic Data Center
151 Patton Avenue
Asheville, NC 28801-5001
fax: 828-271-4328
email: Jay.Lawrimore@noaa.gov
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