National Climatic Data Center, 16 November 2004

Regional Overview

The October precipitation pattern at the primary stations in Alaska and Hawaii was mixed, although streamflow averaged near normal across the Hawaiian islands. The pattern in Puerto Rico was drier than normal based on Cooperative station precipitation reports, near normal based on streamflow, and mixed based on primary station precipitation reports.

Dryness persisted at the 2 month to 3 month timescales across parts of the southern Great Lakes and northern New England.

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Long-term moisture deficits persisted in many areas. Much of the central and northern Rockies were dry at the 9 to 24 month timescale. Parts of the southern Rockies were dry at the 6 to 24 month timescale. Severe moisture deficits were evident at the 36 to 60 month timescale across much of the West into the northern High Plains and central Plains. These long-term hydrological drought conditions are reflected in the November 2 United States Drought Monitor map.

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Some regional highlights:

• Soil moisture conditions:
  • End-of-month and monthly averaged soil moisture conditions were drier than normal across parts of Wyoming and Montana, eastern Alaska, and near the surface and at depth from the central Plains to the Great Lakes, based on model computations (CPC-1, CPC-2, MRCC).
  • End-of-October USDA topsoil moisture observations were dry in the Rocky Mountain states and Nebraska. These conditions were drier than the 10-year average conditions in Nebraska and Wyoming. However, the October 2004 topsoil moisture observations in all reporting states were wetter than the 5-year climatologies. This indicates that the recent precipitation has resulted in considerable improvement from the severe drought that has plagued much of the West during the last 5 to 6 years.
• Streamflow levels were below seasonal norms across parts of the West, central Plains, and Great Lakes, both as computed by models and based on USGS observations.
• Although long-term (out to 5-years) moisture conditions remained dry across much of the western U.S., drought conditions have improved in recent months. The percent area of the western U.S. (Rockies westward) experiencing moderate to extreme drought (as defined by the Palmer Drought Index) dramatically decreased during October to about 18%.

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Additional Contacts:

Colorado - Delaware - Delaware River Basin (DE-NJ-NY-PA) - Florida Panhandle - Georgia - Idaho - Kentucky - Maine - Maryland - Missouri-1 - Missouri-2 - Montana - New Jersey-1 - New Jersey-2 - New Jersey-3 - New Mexico - Oklahoma-1 - Oklahoma-2 - Oklahoma-3 - Oregon - Pennsylvania-1 - Pennsylvania-2 - South Carolina - Texas - Vermont - Virginia - Wyoming

For additional information on current and past wildfire seasons please see the National Interagency Fire Center web site or the U.S. Forest Service Fire and Aviation web site.

NCDC's Drought Recovery Page shows the precipitation required to end or ameliorate droughts and the probability of receiving the required precipitation.

Additional climate monitoring graphics can be found at the Climate Prediction Center's monitoring pages:

• Weekly, Monthly, 3-Month, 12-Month Monitoring
• El Nino, Drought, Snow Cover, and Degree Day Monitoring
• Weekly Drought Monitoring
• Soil Moisture Monitoring

Precipitation and modeled soil moisture anomaly maps for the Midwest U.S. can be found at the Midwest Regional Climate Center's monitoring page.

Drought conditions on the Canadian prairies can be found at the Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada Drought Watch page.

Climate Services Division
NOAA/National Climatic Data Center
151 Patton Avenue
Asheville, NC 28801-5001
fax: 828-271-4876
phone: 828-271-4800
email: ncdc.info@noaa.gov

Richard Heim
NOAA/National Climatic Data Center
151 Patton Avenue
Asheville, NC 28801-5001
fax: 828-271-4328
email: Richard.Heim@noaa.gov